Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 868

   Mesoscale Discussion 0868
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0820 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025

   Areas affected...Parts of north-central Texas

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 288...

   Valid 190120Z - 190215Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 288 continues.

   SUMMARY...The supercell tornado threat continues, though it is
   unclear how far east the risk will spread.

   DISCUSSION...A well-established supercell with a history of
   producing tornadoes and very large hail continues across parts of
   north-central TX. This storm is still in a very favorable
   environment -- characterized by 270-300 m2/s2 0-1km SRH (per nearby
   VWP data) and strong surface-based instability. Given this
   environment and the ongoing strong mesocyclone, the tornado,
   large-hail, and damaging-wind threat continues. It is unclear how
   long this supercell will maintain its current intensity with
   eastward extent, as it gradually encounters increasing inhibition
   (sampled by FWD 00Z sounding). However, the aforementioned strong
   mesocyclone and large storm-size may allow it to persist -- with an
   accompanying all-hazards risk.

   ..Weinman.. 05/19/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FWD...

   LAT...LON   32609836 32839820 33059740 32969698 32639696 32399710
               32319748 32289793 32369827 32609836 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN