Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 869

   Mesoscale Discussion 0869
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0834 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025

   Areas affected...Parts of west-central Texas

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 288...

   Valid 190134Z - 190230Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 288 continues.

   SUMMARY...The tornado threat may be increasing locally across parts
   of west-central Texas.

   DISCUSSION...An isolated thunderstorm that has generally been
   evolving along/west of the dryline is gradually impinging on the
   moist sector -- where middle/upper 60s dewpoints are yielding strong
   surface-based instability. While modified RAP forecast soundings
   indicate notable inhibition at the base of the EML, around 300 m2/s2
   effective SRH and the aforementioned boundary-layer moisture will
   support a conditional risk of a tornado as the storm continues
   eastward over the next hour or so.

   ..Weinman.. 05/19/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SJT...

   LAT...LON   31580002 31690023 32040033 32319958 32289929 32029916
               31769927 31580002 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN