Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 870

   Mesoscale Discussion 0870
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0927 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025

   Areas affected...Parts of southwest Kansas

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 287...291...

   Valid 190227Z - 190330Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 287, 291 continues.

   SUMMARY...A highly favorable and localized tornado corridor is
   evident in parts of southwest Kansas.

   DISCUSSION...A supercell has recently intensified at the nose of the
   strong/extreme surface-based instability over southwest KS. Here,
   the VNX/DDC VWPs are sampling a 40-50 kt low-level jet -- which is
   contributing to 350-400 m2/s2 0-500m SRH. This very high helicity
   and strong/extreme instability will favor a localized corridor for
   tornadoes -- some of which may be strong/intense if storms can
   remain surface-based.

   ..Weinman.. 05/19/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DDC...

   LAT...LON   37339964 37669961 37889943 37989913 37829859 37449856
               37189879 37169942 37339964 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...140-170 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN