Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 189

   Mesoscale Discussion 0189
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1157 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025

   Areas affected...southwestern Lower Michigan and northern Indiana

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 150457Z - 150600Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Potential for damaging winds will spread eastward into
   northern Indiana and southern Lower Michigan over the next couple of
   hours.

   DISCUSSION...Latest RAP-based objective analysis shows only weak
   buoyancy across southern Lower Michigan and northern Indiana, but
   very strong flow aloft exists ahead of the advancing upper low.  As
   such, and given dry lower-tropospheric air across the region
   providing evaporative potential, it appears that locally damaging
   winds will remain possible with the advancing band of convection now
   crossing northern Illinois.  As such, new WW issuance may be
   required.

   ..Goss/Mosier.. 03/15/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...

   LAT...LON   41538755 42448616 42108525 41168475 40538502 40418674
               41538755