February 19, 2025

Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 51

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Mesoscale Discussion 51
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0051
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0354 PM CST Tue Jan 21 2025

   Areas affected...portions of southern GA and northern FL

   Concerning...Heavy snow 

   Valid 212154Z - 220400Z

   SUMMARY...Wintry precipitation to the west and north should
   gradually expand in coverage and intensity over portions of southern
   GA and northern FL late this afternoon and evening. An initial
   wintry mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain will be possible before
   heavy snow, with rates near 1 in/hr, develops this evening.

   DISCUSSION...As of 2140 UTC, regional radar analysis showed a broad
   area of winter precipitation ongoing over much of the northern Gulf
   Coast and Southeast. A band of moderate snow was also expanding over
   portions of south-central GA. So far, temperatures have remained
   above freezing over portions of southern GA and northern FL. Strong
   cold advection from upstream stations in the mid to low 20s F should
   support a continued cooling trend through the remainder of the
   afternoon and into this evening. Columnar cooling will be further
   aided by rapid moistening as deep-layer ascent increases with the
   approach of the main precipitation shield. This should result in
   temperatures falling to near or below freezing in the next couple of
   hours, concurrent with the onset of precipitation from heavier
   banding to the north and west.

   As precipitation rates intensify, an initial wintry mix of sleet and
   freezing rain will develop from southwest to northeast. This should
   be followed by a relatively fast transition to all snow from the far
   eastern FL Panhandle and across southern GA between 23-02z. Strong
   frontogenetic response in the 850-700 mb layer and rapidly cooling
   temperatures may support snowfall rates near 1"/hr for a few hours
   as snow gradually expands northeastward through the evening hours.

   ..Lyons.. 01/21/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE...

   LAT...LON   30088437 30198306 31128159 31988108 32488132 32928181
               33008217 32508404 31498515 30518497 30088437 


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2025-01-21 22:07:02