Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 753

   Mesoscale Discussion 0753
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0105 PM CDT Fri May 09 2025

   Areas affected...Southeast Virginia and northeast North Carolina

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 091805Z - 092000Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A few strong storms could produce marginally severe hail
   and locally gusty winds this afternoon across portions of southeast
   Virginia into adjacent northeast North Carolina.

   DISCUSSION...Deepening cumulus is noted in visible satellite imagery
   this afternoon in the vicinity of a surface cold front. Modest
   destabilization is occurring across the region, aided by steepening
   midlevel lapse rates as cooling aloft occurs with the
   eastward-meandering upper low/trough. While boundary layer moisture
   is modest (low 60s F dewpoints), MLCAPE to around 500-750 J/kg will
   likely overspread the region through early evening. Sufficient shear
   is in place for some updraft organization. Elongated hodographs and
   cold temperatures aloft suggest that stronger updrafts could support
   marginally severe hail. Furthermore, steepening low-level lapse
   rates could support locally strong gusts. Overall, modest
   instability and possibly lower storm coverage should temper the
   overall severe risk and a watch is not currently expected.

   ..Leitman/Mosier.. 05/09/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...

   LAT...LON   37247577 36877553 35707533 35397544 35257588 35267614
               35627700 36097760 36357772 36677766 37007735 37097727
               37327666 37347625 37317603 37247577 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN