Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 752

   Mesoscale Discussion 0752
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1241 PM CDT Fri May 09 2025

   Areas affected...portions of the Florida Panhandle into extreme
   southeast Alabama and extreme southwest Georgia

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 091741Z - 091915Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...A strong, damaging wind gust or an instance of marginally
   severe hail may occur with some of the stronger storms over the next
   few hours. Watch issuance is not expected.

   DISCUSSION...MRMS mosaic radar imagery depicts intensifying
   thunderstorms along the FL Panhandle and immediate surrounding
   areas, with 40 dBZ echoes extending over 30 kft. These storms are
   strengthening atop a deepening boundary layer, with 8 C/km 0-3 km
   lapse rates contributing to 1500+ J/kg MLCAPE. Regional VADs show
   modestly elongated, straight hodographs and around 30 kts of
   effective bulk shear, favoring multicellular storm modes. The
   strongest, longest-lived multicells may produce strong wind gusts
   and perhaps an instance of marginally severe hail. The sparse nature
   of the severe threat precludes a watch issuance.

   ..Squitieri/Mosier.. 05/09/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...

   LAT...LON   30688735 31288599 31308481 30948385 30468368 30158388
               29818438 29638487 29578512 29738539 29958551 30168585
               30298630 30348696 30688735 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN