Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 751

   Mesoscale Discussion 0751
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0925 PM CDT Thu May 08 2025

   Areas affected...Central SC into eastern NC

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 090225Z - 090330Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms may increase in coverage late this evening
   across parts of SC/NC.  A watch is not currently anticipated, but
   trends are being monitored.

   DISCUSSION...A relatively slow-moving but mature MCS is tracking
   eastward across central NC.  The outflow boundary associated with
   this convection has proceeded out ahead of the updrafts, suggesting
   a slow weakening will occur.  Nevertheless, mesoscale organization
   may continue to result in gusty winds along the line for another 1-2
   hours.

   The surface outflow boundary extends southwestward into northern SC.
    Southeasterly low-level winds to the south of the boundary will
   maintain a moist and unstable air mass in this region, where
   relatively steep mid-level lapse rates are present.  Most CAM
   guidance suggests that thunderstorms will increase in coverage along
   the outflow boundary during the next couple of hours.  Given the
   unstable conditions and favorable deep-layer shear profiles, there
   will remain some severe threat through the early morning period. 
   However, it is unclear whether this threat will warrant a new severe
   thunderstorm watch, given continued diurnal cooling.  Trends will be
   monitored.

   ..Hart/Smith.. 05/09/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CAE...GSP...FFC...

   LAT...LON   34498216 34808034 35277945 35937901 35807826 34987804
               34047857 33567952 33448110 33558263 34268320 34498216 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN