Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 749

   Mesoscale Discussion 0749
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0655 PM CDT Thu May 08 2025

   Areas affected...portions of south Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 082355Z - 090100Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...A new small WW will be issued shortly. A cluster of storms
   is expected to continue eastward toward the Texas coast with a risk
   for hail and damaging winds this evening.

   DISCUSSION...As of 2355 UTC, regional radar analysis showed a
   cluster of severe storms ongoing near a diffuse front/modified
   outflow boundary across portions of the Rio Grande Valley and South
   TX. Recent radar trends and CAM guidance continue to suggest upscale
   growth is likely with this cluster, and additional storms moving
   over the River in the next few hours. The environment downstream
   remains favorable for organized severe storms with moderate
   instability and deep-layer shear. While some prior convection and
   the coastal front have reduced temperatures near the immediate coast
   somewhat, robust moisture (surface dewpoints in the 70s F) and steep
   mid-level lapse rates will likely offset nocturnal stabilization
   this evening. This suggest the threat for damaging winds and hail
   may continue into the immediate coastal counties and offshore
   tonight. Given the increasing severe threat, a small WW will be
   issued shortly east of WW241.

   ..Lyons/Smith.. 05/08/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...BRO...

   LAT...LON   27409873 28389885 28729866 28549758 28199693 27149724
               27039761 26819823 26919833 27409873 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN