Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 745

   Mesoscale Discussion 0745
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0214 PM CDT Thu May 08 2025

   Areas affected...south-central Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 081914Z - 082115Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage to increase into the
   afternoon/evening with potential for damaging winds and large to
   very large hail.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity has been ongoing across the
   border in Mexico as well as across portions of far western Texas
   this afternoon. The activity in west Texas has been slowly advancing
   south and eastward near the Rio Grande. Activity across Mexico has
   slowly begun to spread eastward into Texas as well. It is likely
   that storms will move out of Mexico across the Rio Grande Valley
   into portions of south-central Texas and into the south Texas Brush
   Country.

   The air mass across this region is very moist and unstable, with
   MLCAPE around 1000-2000 J/kg. Deep layer shear around 40-50 kts will
   support maintenance of supercells, capable of large to very large
   hail (2-2.5 in) and damaging wind through the evening. This area is
   being monitored for possible watch issuance this afternoon.

   ..Thornton/Gleason.. 05/08/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...BRO...

   LAT...LON   29600144 29760168 29940171 30060171 30230158 30230111
               30220024 29959945 29719904 29309854 27579806 27149815
               26939852 26729904 26959947 27459959 28390044 28910078
               29240091 29600144 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN