Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 743

   Mesoscale Discussion 0743
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0137 PM CDT Thu May 08 2025

   Areas affected...The western Carolinas and southern Virginia.

   Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely 

   Valid 081837Z - 082000Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms developing over the mountains will eventually
   become severe with a threat for large hail and damaging wind gusts.

   DISCUSSION...Visible satellite shows some deeper convection
   developing along/near the crest of the Appalachians. As low-level
   moisture continues to advect north and the boundary layer heats up,
   instability will increase. This should permit storms to strengthen
   further and move off of the terrain. Effective shear around 40 knots
   (per SPC mesoanalysis) and 1500 J/kg MLCAPE will support the
   potential for organized storms, including supercells. Expect a more
   discrete mode with a hail threat initially before storms likely
   congeal into one or more clusters with an increasing damaging wind
   threat late this afternoon and into the evening. 

   A severe thunderstorm watch will likely be needed by mid-afternoon
   to address this evolving threat.

   ..Bentley/Gleason.. 05/08/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP...

   LAT...LON   34178213 34688330 35308347 35728307 36138197 36298167
               36478155 36998106 37107967 36857882 36007896 34837967
               34268124 34278133 34178213 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN