Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 724

   Mesoscale Discussion 0724
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0432 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025

   Areas affected...Parts of eastern Louisiana into southwestern
   Mississippi

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 062132Z - 062300Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm potential will increase across parts
   of eastern Louisiana into southwestern Mississippi over then next
   few hours. Primary concerns are large hail and damaging winds,
   though the tornado risk could increase with time.

   DISCUSSION...A mix of semi-discrete supercells and line segments are
   evolving in the warm-advection wing extending from eastern LA into
   southwestern MS. Around 50 kt of 0-6 km shear (per HDC VWP data) and
   middle/upper 60s dewpoints spreading gradually northward along/south
   of the warm front will continue to support this activity as it
   continues spreading east-northeastward over the next few hours.
   While some of these storms will remain elevated north of the warm
   front, posing mainly a risk of large hail, any storms that can
   mature along/south of the surface front will be capable of producing
   damaging winds, large hail, and perhaps a brief tornado -- given
   ample low-level buoyancy and SRH. Convective trends are being
   monitored for a possible watch for parts of the area.

   ..Weinman/Smith.. 05/06/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...

   LAT...LON   30729084 31489171 32469178 32819158 32959114 32909069
               32509000 31268926 30688954 30479016 30729084 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN