Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 719

   Mesoscale Discussion 0719
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0143 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025

   Areas affected...portions of eastern Pennsylvania into New Jersey
   and southern New York

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 233...

   Valid 061843Z - 062015Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 233
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Strong, damaging wind gusts and hail remain the primary
   threats across Severe Thunderstorm Watch 233 through the afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Ample diurnal heating has supporting boundary layer
   destabilization and subsequent development of multiple bands of
   thunderstorms ahead of a pronounced upper trough. Damaging gusts and
   hail (some stones approaching 1 inch in diameter) have been reported
   with some of the stronger storms. Given the presence of 500-1000
   J/kg MLCAPE and 40+ kts of effective bulk shear preceding ongoing
   storms, additional strong wind gusts and instances of hail remain
   possible through the afternoon.

   ..Squitieri.. 05/06/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...

   LAT...LON   39747698 40447694 41847679 42467662 42717597 42767521
               42317466 41007440 40217468 39737530 39617595 39747698 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN