Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 708

   Mesoscale Discussion 0708
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0827 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025

   Areas affected...parts of swrn TX and adjacent sern NM

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 227...

   Valid 060127Z - 060330Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 227 continues.

   SUMMARY...Potential for the development of at least a couple of
   intense supercells posing a risk for large hail and tornadoes is
   likely to increase through 10 PM-Midnight CDT.  A new tornado watch
   will be needed.

   DISCUSSION...Although attempts at deep convective development
   persist along the dryline, and east of the dryline to the northwest
   of Del Rio, relatively warm/dry air in the lower/mid-troposphere has
   still contributed to at least some suppression.  The strong westerly
   shear, and continued westward retreat of the dryline toward the
   Guadalupe and Davis Mountains, also have likely inhibited
   development.

   However, it does appear that thunderstorm initiation may be
   increasingly underway near the intersection of the dryline and
   stalled surface front near Wink TX.  And potential for intensifying
   thunderstorm development is likely to increase considerably further
   across the Pecos Valley toward the Del Rio TX vicinity through mid
   to late evening.  Low-level moisture characterized by lower to mid
   60s surface dew points is advecting along/south of the Edwards
   Plateau, toward the Pecos Valley, as a short wave trough pivots
   northeastward toward the region.

   As mid-level height falls spread across the region coincident with
   the low-level moistening and destabilization, which may included
   CAPE increasing to 2000-3000 J/kg, the development of at least a
   couple of intense supercells appears increasingly likely through
   03-06Z.

   ..Kerr.. 05/06/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

   LAT...LON   32450356 31700124 31160054 29930102 30010221 30510291
               31510351 32450356 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN