Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 682

   Mesoscale Discussion 0682
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0116 PM CDT Sun May 04 2025

   Areas affected...portions of eastern North Carolina

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 041816Z - 042045Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...An isolated damaging gust threat may accompany the
   stronger storms today, and an instance or two of hail cannot be
   ruled out. A WW issuance is not expected.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are increasing in coverage and intensity
   along a confluence zone in southern NC per latest MRMS mosaic radar
   imagery and visible satellite. Surface temperatures remain
   relatively cool given considerable cloud cover. However, surface
   dewpoints are in the upper 60s to 70 F, which is supporting marginal
   buoyancy in spots (i.e. 500+ J/kg MLCAPE). A southwesterly 500 mb
   jet max is glancing by the Carolina Piedmont to the west,
   contributing to 35 kts of effective bulk shear ahead of the
   developing/ongoing storms. As such, any storms that can take
   advantage of locally higher pockets of buoyancy may intensify enough
   to produce a few damaging wind gusts and perhaps a couple instances
   of marginally severe hail. Nonetheless, the overall sparse nature of
   the severe threat precludes a WW issuance.

   ..Squitieri/Gleason.. 05/04/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...

   LAT...LON   33897829 33927847 34097866 34397876 35127836 35467811
               36387709 36397642 36087578 35507584 34977625 34737691
               34387757 34077782 33897793 33897829 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN