Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 675

   Mesoscale Discussion 0675
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0714 PM CDT Sat May 03 2025

   Areas affected...Eastern Alabama into northern Georgia

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 221...

   Valid 040014Z - 040215Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 221
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The potential for damaging gusts and perhaps brief
   embedded circulations continues across eastern Alabama and northern
   Georgia.

   DISCUSSION...Over the past 30 minutes, GOES IR imagery show
   gradually warming cloud-top temperatures associated with an
   organized squall line across north-central GA. This weakening trend
   is likely associated with the recent onset of the early-evening
   transition with temperatures beginning to fall into the mid 60s.
   Continued nocturnal cooling/stabilization should continue the
   weakening trend, though recent surface observations and high-res
   guidance suggests that damaging winds (generally 35-55 mph) may
   persist for the next couple of hours given the adequately sheared
   and buoyant environment. 

   Further south across eastern AL into far western GA, warmer
   temperatures have allowed for continued storm development ahead of
   the line. The ingestion of the new cells appears to be locally
   reinforcing the cold pool as small-scale outflow surges are noted in
   KMXX and KFFC velocity data, and a stronger mid-level wind surge is
   observable from KBMX. These trends suggest that eastern AL into far
   western GA may see the best potential for a severe gust over the
   next 1-2 hours. Additionally, short-lived embedded circulation
   continue to be noted within the past hour, and this potential should
   persist given the aforementioned outflow surges within an adequately
   sheared environment. Heading deeper into the evening hours, the
   overall severe threat should begin to wane as nocturnal
   stabilization continues to hinder surface-based convection.

   ..Moore.. 05/04/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GSP...FFC...BMX...MOB...

   LAT...LON   32128641 32638566 32998523 33228504 33688454 34258414
               34518381 34568362 34488342 34268326 33978327 33668344
               33238371 32928392 32708412 32488438 32258468 32048511
               31908550 31908575 31978612 32008632 32128641 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN