Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 673

   Mesoscale Discussion 0673
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0536 PM CDT Sat May 03 2025

   Areas affected...South Carolina into south-central North Carolina

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 032236Z - 040030Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will linger within an environment
   supportive of organized convection for the next couple of hours.
   Severe thunderstorm coverage and longevity is expected to remain
   sufficiently limited to preclude watch issuance.

   DISCUSSION...Across central SC, scattered thunderstorms continue to
   develop along the eastern flank of an expanding cold pool deposited
   by prior convection. Ahead of this boundary, temperatures are
   warming into the upper 70s and low 80s - a few degrees warmer than
   anticipated by some guidance - and southeasterly low-level flow is
   advecting low 60s dewpoints northward ahead of the ongoing
   convection. This is not only promoting slightly better buoyancy than
   depicted by guidance and recent mesoanalysis estimates, but is also
   maintaining a narrow warm sector ahead of the storms. Regional VWPs
   are sampling modest wind profiles with 0-6 km BWD values around 30
   knots, which may promote periodic organization/intensification of
   ongoing convection with an attendant hail/damaging wind threat. A
   recent trend of cooling cloud-top temperatures over the past 30
   minutes supports the idea that at least a low-end severe threat
   could materialize in the near term (next 1-2 hours). 

   While sufficient for organized convection, deep-layer shear vectors
   are largely along the outflow boundary and/or into the residual cold
   pool. Consequently, this may limit storm longevity/intensity and
   should modulate the overall severe threat as this activity continues
   to propagate north/northeast into south-central NC. Additionally,
   the onset of nocturnal cooling in the coming hours should begin to
   diminish buoyancy and lead to an overall weakening trend after
   roughly 00 UTC.

   ..Moore/Thompson.. 05/03/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...

   LAT...LON   32958127 33528109 35437991 35757958 35837902 35837873
               35727851 35567842 35497841 35247852 33637990 32958055
               32808073 32758092 32788111 32958127 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN