Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 669

   Mesoscale Discussion 0669
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0237 PM CDT Sat May 03 2025

   Areas affected...much of Nevada into southern Idaho and extreme
   southeast Oregon

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 031937Z - 032100Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated severe gusts are possible through the afternoon.
   Given the sparse nature of the severe threat, a WW issuance is not
   expected.

   DISCUSSION...High-based convection has been slowly deepening through
   the day, with adequate surface heating resulting in a dry boundary
   layer mixing up to 600 mb (per 18Z RAP forecast soundings), and 0-3
   km lapse rates steepening to 9-10 C/km (19Z mesoanalysis). As a
   highly amplified mid-level trough further impinges on the Great
   Basin, increasing deep-layer ascent and speed shear will support
   greater coverage/intensity of high-based multicellular clusters.
   Enough evaporative cooling may transpire to support isolated severe
   gusts via dry microbursts within the stronger storm cores.
   Nonetheless, given the isolated nature of the potentially severe
   gusts, a WW issuance is not anticipated.

   ..Squitieri/Gleason.. 05/03/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...VEF...BOI...LKN...REV...

   LAT...LON   37041649 37341716 38121783 39091815 40671836 41901814
               42631783 42831648 42581559 41661500 39921504 38421519
               37561546 37211579 37041649 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH