Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 667

   Mesoscale Discussion 0667
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0150 PM CDT Sat May 03 2025

   Areas affected...parts of the Mid-Atlantic States

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 031850Z - 032045Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated severe storms may develop over the next few hours
   from parts of central/northern Virginia into southeast Pennsylvania.
   Uncertainty exists over the degree of severe-storm coverage to
   warrant a watch.

   DISCUSSION...Between a severe-storm threat ongoing over the Lower
   Hudson Valley and a separate corridor of strong storms from the SC
   Midlands into far southwest VA, an isolated to strong to severe
   threat may develop over the next few hours. Large-scale ascent is
   nebulous in the near-term, but will improve this evening as
   mid-level height falls overspread. Until that time, the degree of
   storm coverage beyond isolated appears questionable. But where more
   robust insolation has yielded low to mid 80s surface temps,
   convective development is underway near the Blue Ridge Mountains.
   Despite modest low-level flow per area VWP data, moderate deep-layer
   southwesterly speed shear should favor potential for a few
   transient/weak supercell structures. These will offer a risk for
   isolated severe hail and damaging wind into at least early evening.

   ..Grams/Gleason.. 05/03/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...

   LAT...LON   37587978 38087981 39337898 40247809 40557730 40787659
               40567572 40007558 39577604 38507732 37437867 37587978 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN