Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 658

   Mesoscale Discussion 0658
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0442 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025

   Areas affected...Northern Pennsylvania into central New York

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 210...

   Valid 022142Z - 022345Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 210
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A severe hail and damaging wind threat may persist into
   northern Pennsylvania and adjacent portions of New York through
   00-01 UTC, but downstream watch issuance is not anticipated.

   DISCUSSION...A broken line of thunderstorms over western PA and far
   western NY has generally shown signs of weakening over the past 1-2
   hours via warming cloud top temperatures. However, a few cells
   remain fairly robust and will continue to pose a severe hail and
   damaging wind threat for the next couple of hours. Downstream of
   this activity, the environment remains supportive of robust
   convection with MLCAPE estimates to be between 1000-1500 J/kg and
   sufficient deep-layer wind shear on the order of 30 knots as sampled
   by regional VWPs. Additionally, low-level lapse rates remain between
   7-8 C/km across northern PA into NY. This thermodynamic/kinematic
   environment should continue to promote an isolated damaging wind
   threat as storms migrate out of WW 210 and into northern PA/NY
   between 22-00 UTC. The onset of nocturnal cooling will quickly begin
   to hinder the thermodynamic environment after 00 UTC, which should
   result in an increasingly isolated/sporadic severe threat through
   the remainder of the evening.

   ..Moore.. 05/02/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...

   LAT...LON   40748046 41727949 42317830 42897567 42767499 42397451
               42007442 41527467 41127517 40947595 40368002 40468034
               40748046 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN