Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 655

   Mesoscale Discussion 0655
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0322 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025

   Areas affected...eastern KY/TN and far southwest OH

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 213...

   Valid 022022Z - 022215Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 213
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A mixed threat of isolated severe hail and damaging gusts
   should persist through early evening with scattered to broken
   thunderstorms from the central Ohio Valley to the Cumberland
   Plateau.

   DISCUSSION...A fairly messy convective evolution persists, which has
   likely mitigated a more widespread damaging wind threat so far this
   afternoon. The northern end of the convective swath across KY has
   broken up into more cellular elements, with the far northern portion
   that moved through the Louisville area producing damaging winds.
   Meanwhile farther south in TN, the convective line has failed to
   appreciably organize. This may be related to the weak lower-level
   flow sampled in area VWP data. Primary severe threat may remain from
   sporadic, marginally severe hail. Any one of these stronger cores
   might aid in localized damaging wind swaths downstream, but
   confidence is low in if/where a more concentrated threat will occur.

   ..Grams.. 05/02/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...

   LAT...LON   36978290 35858348 35448386 35338464 35618529 36568516
               37128500 37708525 38268559 38618550 39018483 39178417
               39018352 38908331 38458292 36978290 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN