Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 639

   Mesoscale Discussion 0639
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0619 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025

   Areas affected...2Northeast Arkansas into the lower OH River Valley

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 012319Z - 020115Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms may continue to pose a severe hail
   and damaging wind threat through the early evening hours. Watch
   issuance is not anticipated.

   DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorms developing along/ahead of a
   mid-level trough have been more intense and persistent than
   initially anticipated based on an environmental analysis. Over the
   past 1-2 hours, these thunderstorms have intensified within a subtle
   theta-e/buoyancy ridge extending from northeast AR into the lower OH
   River Valley with a 1.75 inch hail report noted over the past hour.
   Deep-layer wind shear within the base of the mid-level trough axis
   remains fairly marginal based on regional VWP observations (20-25
   knots), however, the combination of sufficient deep-layer shear and
   augmented buoyancy have been adequate to promote thunderstorms with
   weak/transient mid-level mesocyclones in the stronger cells. Storms
   may continue to intensify to severe levels over the next 1-2 hours
   as they traverse the buoyancy ridge and prior to the onset of
   nocturnal cooling after 01 UTC. The stronger cells may be capable of
   1-1.75 inch hail and damaging gusts, though the overall coverage and
   duration of the threat should remain sufficiently limited to
   preclude watch issuance.

   ..Moore/Smith.. 05/01/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...

   LAT...LON   36839132 37329103 37969031 38688890 38878817 38758773
               38498738 38218723 37978721 37618737 37418756 36088983
               35699050 35659087 35679114 35829148 36049158 36289161
               36839132 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN