Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 637

   Mesoscale Discussion 0637
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0548 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025

   Areas affected...Portions of Southwest into Central Texas

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 204...205...

   Valid 012248Z - 020015Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 204, 205
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Scattered slow-moving severe thunderstorms will continue
   into the early-evening hours. Hail is the primary concern.

   DISCUSSION...Scattered slow-moving thunderstorms continue within a
   very high-instability air mass from the international border over
   southeast Terrell County to Leon County. Wind profiles favor storm
   splits and latest radar data supports this with several left-movers
   advancing north of the watch at times. Even so, the primary concern
   this evening will be for the east-west corridor to gradually sag
   south as the dominant updrafts should tend to drift more southerly.
   MRMS data suggests large, to very large hail is common with this
   activity.

   ..Darrow.. 05/01/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF...

   LAT...LON   30330191 30590001 31139804 31489585 30389610 30039815
               28770141 30330191 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.75-4.25 IN