Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 634

   Mesoscale Discussion 0634
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0322 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025

   Areas affected...western MD/eastern WV Panhandles into south-central
   PA

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 012022Z - 012145Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A single, slow-moving supercell may persist for the next
   couple hours with a threat of large hail and localized damaging
   winds. Confidence is low in greater coverage/longevity for a
   potential severe thunderstorm watch.

   DISCUSSION...A supercell centered on Allegany County, MD has had the
   most impressive observational structure per radar/satellite trends,
   relative to other severe storms in the Upper OH Valley/Lower Great
   Lakes region. This cell appears to be anchored near a slow-moving
   warm front, likely ingesting a mesoscale ribbon of mid 60s surface
   dew points southeastward along the WV/VA/MD border area. Given the
   relatively confined region of this enhancement, with a substantially
   drier air mass both to the northeast and south, the longevity of a
   sustained supercell structure is questionable. However, it is
   plausible that a localized severe hail/wind threat may continue for
   the next couple hours.

   ..Grams/Hart.. 05/01/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...

   LAT...LON   40187889 40417839 40357799 40057745 39807752 39557809
               39517888 39707911 40187889 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN