Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 628

   Mesoscale Discussion 0628
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0719 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025

   Areas affected...Parts of east Texas

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 198...

   Valid 010019Z - 010145Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 198 continues.

   SUMMARY...Risk of severe hail persists across parts of east Texas --
   within WW198.

   DISCUSSION...Semi-discrete storms have been confined to the north of
   an outflow-reinforced cold front across east TX -- where steep
   midlevel lapse rates/ample elevated instability and 50 kt of
   effective shear is favoring a severe hail risk. Over the next few
   hours, the front may move slowly southward, though it is unclear if
   storms will become surface-based. Nevertheless, a severe hail risk
   should persist for another couple hours, and either an extension of
   the current watch or an additional watch (Severe Thunderstorm) would
   be warranted.

   ..Weinman/Smith.. 05/01/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...

   LAT...LON   31209766 31499746 31859667 32179524 32069486 31709473
               31339512 30719655 30659715 30849759 31209766 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN