Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 625

   Mesoscale Discussion 0625
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0628 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025

   Areas affected...Parts of eastern Arkansas into far western
   Tennessee and northwest Mississippi

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 199...

   Valid 302328Z - 010100Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 199 continues.

   SUMMARY...An eastward-moving MCS will continue to pose a risk of
   severe wind gusts and perhaps an embedded mesovortex tornado or two
   into this evening. Convective trends are being monitored for a
   possible downstream watch.

   DISCUSSION...A north/south-oriented MCS is tracking eastward across
   central AR at around 30 kt. Given around 40 kt of deep-layer shear
   oriented oblique to the gust front, warm/moist inflow, and a
   gradually strengthening low-level jet, this MCS should maintain its
   current intensity with eastward extent across the remainder of AR
   and perhaps into far western TN and northwestern MS. The primary
   concern will be severe wind gusts (especially with any bowing
   segments), though an embedded mesovortex tornado or two cannot be
   ruled out (aided by around 200 m2/s2 effective SRH) -- especially in
   the near-term. Convective trends are being monitored for a possible
   downstream watch.

   ..Weinman/Smith.. 04/30/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...

   LAT...LON   33609228 34919208 35719195 35999162 36119111 36109035
               35918980 35238970 33619024 33209085 33259182 33609228 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN