Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 623

   Mesoscale Discussion 0623
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0307 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025

   Areas affected...Eastern Kentucky

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 302007Z - 302200Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated damaging winds and potentially marginally severe
   hail may occur with the strongest storms. A watch is not likely this
   afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...A very moist airmass (mid/upper 60s F dewpoints) is in
   place in the Upper Ohio Valley vicinity. On the southern fringe of a
   belt of stronger mid-level flow, effective shear is a modest 25-30
   kts. Around 1500 J/kg MLCAPE will promote a few stronger to
   marginally severe storms. Low-level lapse rates are steep and
   damaging winds are the primary threat. Mid-level lapse rates
   (sampled by this mornings soundings) are modest. Small to perhaps
   isolated, marginally severe hail may occur with the strongest
   storms.

   ..Wendt/Hart.. 04/30/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...LMK...

   LAT...LON   37518517 38178451 38358349 38128257 37748218 37448242
               36718337 36558413 36898486 37518517 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN