Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 622

   Mesoscale Discussion 0622
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0253 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025

   Areas affected...western and central Arkansas

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 197...

   Valid 301953Z - 302200Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 197 continues.

   SUMMARY...A line of strong to severe storms will continue eastward
   the next several hours. Damaging gusts and a tornado or two remain
   possible. A downstream watch will likely be needed.

   DISCUSSION...The line of convection across western AR will continue
   to shift east at around 35 kt the next few hours. downstream,
   filtered heating has allowed temperatures to warm into the low/mid
   80s amid low/mid 60s F dewpoints. Midlevel lapse rates remain
   modest, but the moist environment is fostering modest instability
   amid a moderately sheared environment. Given stronger heating ahead
   of the line, low-level lapse rates have steepened considerable, and
   this may foster a continued risk for damaging gusts into early
   evening. A new watch downstream from Tornado Watch 197 will likely
   be needed in the next hour.

   ..Leitman.. 04/30/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...

   LAT...LON   35659348 35719254 35479186 35119155 34569157 33499197
               33099222 33039257 33019310 33109398 33459431 34149466
               35329435 35659348 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN