Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 614

   Mesoscale Discussion 0614
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1142 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025

   Areas affected...Southern Plains

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 195...

   Valid 300442Z - 300645Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 195
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Robust convection will continue to regenerate across the
   southern Plains into the pre-dawn hours. Hail is the primary risk
   with this activity.

   DISCUSSION...Large-scale forcing appears to be increasing across the
   southern High Plains late this evening ahead of a short-wave trough
   that is ejecting into this region. LLJ is strengthening across
   southwest/west TX ahead of this feature, and VWP data supports this
   with 40-50kt 1km south-southeasterly flow. Of particular concern is
   the near-stationary boundary that is draped from south of ADM-north
   of ABI-MAF. This front is not expected to move appreciably through
   sunrise and strong low-level warm advection will prove efficient in
   generating elevated convection north of the wind shift. Hail should
   be common with this activity as modest MUCAPE/steep lapse rates
   exist well north of the front. Latest thinking is multiple elevated
   thunderstorm clusters will evolve over the TX South Plains over the
   next several hours, then spread northeast into southern OK.

   ..Darrow.. 04/30/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

   LAT...LON   33010305 33830109 34609906 34379691 33509693 32050095
               32090272 33010305 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN