Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 610

   Mesoscale Discussion 0610
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0555 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025

   Areas affected...Parts of western North Texas into southwest and
   south-central Oklahoma

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 190...

   Valid 292255Z - 300030Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 190
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Parts of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 190 will likely be
   upgraded to a Tornado Watch within the hour.

   DISCUSSION...A cluster of right-moving supercells is tracking
   east-northeastward along a stationary boundary draped across western
   North TX -- with a history of producing very large hail up to 5
   inches in diameter. This activity will continue tracking/developing
   east-northeastward along the boundary into the overnight hours,
   continuing to pose a risk of very large hail and severe wind gusts.
   Additionally, as the low-level jet strengthens amid moist/easterly
   low-level flow (upper 60s dewpoints), low-level hodographs will
   expand with substantial clockwise curvature (effective SRH upwards
   of 300 m2/s2). While front-parallel flow casts some uncertainty on
   mode evolution and ingestion of surface-based inflow, this
   environment will support an increasing tornado risk. Therefore,
   parts of WW190 will likely be upgraded to a Tornado Watch within the
   hour.

   ..Weinman/Guyer.. 04/29/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...

   LAT...LON   33550068 34040021 34739903 35049794 35029721 34869686
               34409677 34009694 33739738 33289846 32939963 32910028
               33050076 33550068 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN