Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 607

   Mesoscale Discussion 0607
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0335 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025

   Areas affected...Parts of eastern Oklahoma into Northwest Arkansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 292035Z - 292230Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms that are currently elevated may produce marginally
   severe hail. A watch is not anticipated in the short term, but
   trends will be monitored.

   DISCUSSION...Storms in central Oklahoma have remained elevated and
   sub-severe so far. The observed 18Z Norman sounding showed modestly
   steep mid-level lapse rates, but relatively weak buoyancy due to
   cloud cover/precipitation. This activity will generally move to the
   east/northeast behind an outflow boundary. Recent surface
   observations have shown some airmass modification/recovery in
   east-central Oklahoma where temperatures have warmed back into the
   low 70s. There is at least low potential that storms nearest to the
   outflow boundary could become near to surface based. A locally
   greater severe threat would be possible in that scenario. Overall,
   however, storms will primarily be capable of marginally severe hail
   and perhaps isolated damaging gusts.

   ..Wendt/Hart.. 04/29/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...

   LAT...LON   34979457 34769485 34579564 34649648 34839687 35269723
               36169746 36339747 36479716 36539624 36409425 35859399
               35349438 34979457 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN