Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 594

   Mesoscale Discussion 0594
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0855 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025

   Areas affected...Parts of southwest Oklahoma

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 182...

   Valid 290155Z - 290300Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 182 continues.

   SUMMARY...Supercell tornado potential is likely peaking over the
   next hour or two.

   DISCUSSION...After several storm mergers into a cluster of
   supercells over southwest OK -- to include a left-mover that
   produced 3-inch hail, the latest radar data has shown signs that
   right-movers are attempting to become dominant. This is in response
   to the strengthening low-level jet and related enlargement of
   clockwise-curved hodograph sampled by the FDR VWP (around 270 m2/s2
   0-500m SRH). While uncertainty remains in the overall tornado risk,
   given the continued messy mode, recent trends and environmental data
   suggest that the right movers could mature and pose an increased
   tornado risk over the next hour or two.

   ..Weinman.. 04/29/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OUN...

   LAT...LON   34749962 35029950 35199863 35159822 34719805 34539820
               34429887 34429947 34749962 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN