Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 573

   Mesoscale Discussion 0573
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0713 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025

   Areas affected...Eastern New Mexico

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 175...

   Valid 270013Z - 270215Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 175 continues.

   SUMMARY...The tornado threat across WW 175 will continue into the
   early evening, particularly in the vicinity of two isolated
   supercells near Roswell and Fort Sumner, NM.

   DISCUSSION...A pair of rightward-moving supercells have developed
   along and east of a dryline in eastern New Mexico. Recent trends in
   the KFDX VAD wind profiles show increasing low-level curvature of
   the hodograph, which should continue to enlarge this evening with
   the onset of the nocturnal low-level jet. Easterly surface winds
   that are antiparallel to the westerly storm-motion vectors will
   result in an overall enhancement of the storm-relative inflow near
   the surface, supporting robust updraft development and maintenance
   into the early evening hours. These supercells will be capable of
   60+ MPH winds, 2.0+ inch hail, and tornadoes. 

   Short-term forecast guidance does suggest the boundary layer will
   begin to stabilize with eastward extent after 01Z, limiting some of
   the tornado threat after dark, but persistent mesocyclones fed by
   strong storm-relative inflow may be able to persist a little while
   longer after dark.

   ..Halbert.. 04/27/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   32630435 33430472 33950486 34640497 34960502 35390467
               35470425 35360379 35100332 34660304 34140293 33510280
               33150282 32840292 32610323 32500389 32630435 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN