Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 570

   Mesoscale Discussion 0570
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0250 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025

   Areas affected...parts of sern OK...nern TX...swrn AR...nwrn LA

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 261950Z - 262145Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Ongoing thunderstorm development is likely to continue to
   intensify through 4-6 PM CDT, including a couple of supercells
   posing a risk for severe hail, locally strong surface gusts, and
   perhaps a brief tornado or two.

   DISCUSSION...The early day convective cluster has generally
   weakened, with at least a couple of remnant mesoscale circulations
   continuing to migrate northeastward and eastward into/across parts
   of south central Kansas and northeastern Oklahoma.  The Rapid
   Refresh indicates that there is a lingering pocket of relatively
   cold mid-level air (-12 to -13C around 500 mb), associated with a
   low-amplitude short wave perturbation overspreading the Red River
   Valley vicinity, within moderate westerly mid/upper flow.  It
   appears that this is supporting an increase in thunderstorm
   development west-northwest of Durant toward the Ark-La-Tex vicinity.

   The more recent convection is focused along a diffuse near surface
   baroclinic zone within weak surface troughing, where inflow
   emanating from a seasonably moist boundary layer characterized by
   CAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg seems likely to support further
   intensification into late afternoon.  This may include supercell
   structures with potential to produce severe hail.  Low-level
   hodographs are generally forecast to remain modest, but a brief
   tornado might not be out of the question.

   ..Kerr/Smith.. 04/26/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

   LAT...LON   35039549 34629405 33879322 32719385 33069486 33929644
               34409655 35039549 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN