Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 569

   Mesoscale Discussion 0569
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0228 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025

   Areas affected...Portions of eastern New Mexico into the Trans-Pecos

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 261928Z - 262130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Large to very-large hail and perhaps a tornado or two are
   possible with supercells near an outflow boundary this
   afternoon/evening. A watch may eventually be needed. Convective
   trends will be monitored.

   DISCUSSION...With continuing convection within Oklahoma and western
   North Texas, outflow has continued to push west/southwestward into
   eastern New Mexico and through the South Plains. While a few
   towering cumulus have been observed along this outflow boundary
   during the afternoon, residence time within the zone of ascent has
   been too short to promote deep convection. Farther to the west,
   southeasterly winds have pushed mid/upper 50s F dewpoints into the
   southern Rockies. Convection has been slowly deepening per day cloud
   phase imagery. The most likely scenario is for a few storms to
   develop within the next 2-3 hours and propagate east-southeastward
   as the outflow boundary pushes up against the terrain.

   With 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE near and just behind the outflow boundary
   (where it has remained cloud free) and 30-40 kts of effective shear
   across the boundary, supercells would likely be the dominant storm
   mode. Steep mid-level lapse rates sampled in this mornings observed
   soundings in the region suggest large to very-large hail would be
   possible along with isolated severe gusts. The tornado threat is
   somewhat less certain given what will at least initially be weak
   low-level winds. However, backed surface winds along/near the
   outflow boundary will provide greater SRH for storms that favorably
   interact with it. There will be a modest increase in the low-level
   jet this evening, but, given the more stable conditions with
   eastward extent, the spatial window for greater tornado potential
   appears limited/conditional. Convective trends will continue to be
   monitored. A watch may eventually be needed, but timing remains
   uncertain.

   ..Wendt/Smith.. 04/26/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

   LAT...LON   34320539 34990547 35180540 35430514 35450483 35380461
               34820408 34210380 33560359 32970322 32090328 31670392
               31970455 33240527 33900547 34320539 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN