Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 564

   Mesoscale Discussion 0564
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0109 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025

   Areas affected...Texas Panhandle

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 174...

   Valid 260609Z - 260800Z

   CORRECTED FOR WORDING

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 174
   continues.

   SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat will likely continue for a
   couple more hours from the the Texas Panhandle eastward into eastern
   New Mexico. Large hail and severe gusts will be the primary threats.

   DISCUSSION...Latest mosaic radar imagery shows a somewhat large
   convective cluster from eastern New Mexico extending eastward into
   the southwestern and central Texas Panhandle. These storms are
   located along the northern edge of an unstable airmass, where the
   RAP is analyzing MLCAPE in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. The storms
   are being supported by the instability, along with warm advection
   associated with a 30 to 40 knot low to mid-level jet over west
   Texas. RAP forecast soundings at 06Z in the southwestern Texas
   Panhandle have 0-6 km shear near 40 knots with directional shear in
   the lowest 2 kilometers. This shear environment will likely be
   favorable for isolated supercells with a large hail threat. The
   greatest potential for large hail is expected from the southwestern
   Texas Panhandle into eastern New Mexico, where the combination of
   instability, shear and steep lapse rates appears to be maximized. In
   addition, supercells could produce isolated severe gusts.

   ..Broyles.. 04/26/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   34150365 34240426 34370438 34490443 34600442 34770425
               35080372 35480248 35540227 35570145 35320123 34980118
               34480171 34210242 34150365 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN