Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 561

   Mesoscale Discussion 0561
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0344 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025

   Areas affected...the Trans-Pecos and Permian Basin

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 173...

   Valid 252044Z - 252215Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 173
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A localized very large hail threat should be confined to
   the Trans-Pecos and adjacent Pecos Valley into early evening.

   DISCUSSION...A slow-moving supercell has been drifting east, west of
   Fort Stockton. Additional storm-development appears likely to be
   delayed until early evening or later based on recent visible
   satellite and HRRR trends. 19Z observed sounding at Midland sampled
   weak 0-3 km shear/SRH, limiting low-level hodograph curvature.
   Still, adequate speed shear through the buoyancy layer will support
   large to very large hail potential with the supercell or two that
   anchor near the higher terrain. As low-level southeasterlies
   increase in the next few hours, additional storms may develop north
   into far southeast NM.

   ..Grams.. 04/25/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MAF...

   LAT...LON   31580316 30880275 30640291 30650345 30720392 31170423
               31980430 31860343 31580316 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN