Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 560

   Mesoscale Discussion 0560
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0319 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025

   Areas affected...the TX South Plains

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 172...

   Valid 252019Z - 252145Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 172 continues.

   SUMMARY...Greatest potential for a slow-moving, long-lived intense
   supercell will be across the Texas South Plains portion of WW 172,
   along a largely west/east-oriented outflow boundary.

   DISCUSSION...Initial sustained supercell development has been
   drifting east over Bailey County, with additional incipient cells to
   its east towards Plainview. Surface/low-level convergence will
   remain maximized near the TX/NM border over the next couple hours,
   which should support further intensification of this ongoing
   activity. With only around 20-kts of 0-3 km shear per the Lubbock
   VWP, very large hail should remain the overarching threat in the
   near term, potentially reaching baseball to softball size. But
   strengthening of low-level east-southeasterlies should commence in
   the next couple hours. A corresponding increase in tornado potential
   is expected into early evening with ingest of mid 60s surface dew
   points from the Low Rolling Plains. Given weak large-scale ascent,
   convection should remain discrete enough into this time frame to
   support potential for a strong tornado in the most intense/mature
   supercell anchored along the mesoscale outflow boundary.

   ..Grams/Smith.. 04/25/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LUB...

   LAT...LON   34080287 34180228 34160204 34120170 34020123 33760075
               33510068 33220083 33070100 33010138 33120183 33400212
               33650254 33810291 34080287 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.75-4.25 IN