Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 553

   Mesoscale Discussion 0553
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0851 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025

   Areas affected...OK/TX Panhandles into the TX South Plains

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 167...

   Valid 250151Z - 250315Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 167 continues.

   SUMMARY...Supercells with very large hail and a tornado threat may
   continue into late evening.

   DISCUSSION...A cluster of supercells with a history of producing
   very large hail is ongoing at 0145 UTC across the northeast TX
   Panhandle. While MLCINH is gradually increasing, some rightward
   motion has recently been noted with these cells, indicative of some
   increase in cell organization. Some tornado threat may yet evolve
   with these cells, given the presence of strong instability and
   modestly enlarged low-level hodographs per the KAMA VWP. Otherwise,
   large to very large hail and localized severe gusts will remain
   possible with the strongest of these cells as they propagate
   southeastward. 

   Farther south, a cell with notable deviant rightward motion is
   moving southward into Garza County. This cell has a history of
   producing tornadoes and is likely producing very large to giant
   hail. An imminent collision with a northeastward-moving left-mover
   may disrupt this cell, though the cell/outflow interaction may
   briefly lead to an uptick in tornado potential. The long-lived cell
   over southern Motley County may also continue to pose a threat of
   all severe hazards over the next 1-2 hours. 

   Eventually, increasing MLCINH should lead to weakening of ongoing
   discrete storms, though some threat may still persist to near or
   after the 11 PM CDT expiration time of WW 167.

   ..Dean.. 04/25/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...

   LAT...LON   33730046 32960074 32670122 32690165 32860194 33070199
               35060154 36800116 36920047 36400014 35600009 34070039
               33730046 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.75-4.25 IN