Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 552

   Mesoscale Discussion 0552
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0813 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025

   Areas affected...Southeastern Colorado into Western Kansas

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 169...

   Valid 250113Z - 250245Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 169
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The severe weather threat across WW 169 continues into the
   evening, with large hail and damaging winds the primary hazards.
   Some downstream watch extensions may be necessary as a linear
   convective segment matures moving into western Kansas.

   DISCUSSION...The severe weather threat for WW 169 continues this
   evening, particularly across northern portions of the watch area in
   southeastern Colorado, as thunderstorm clusters have begun to
   loosely organize into a linear convective segment. While the overall
   coverage of severe storms has been low thus far, SPC surface
   mesoanalysis data show MUCAPE increasing with eastward extent,
   coupled with deep-layer bulk shear of 40-45 kts. This should support
   continued organization of the linear convective complex as it moves
   into western Kansas, shifting gradually from a hail/wind threat to a
   primarily damaging wind threat later into the evening.

   ..Halbert.. 04/25/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...

   LAT...LON   38870450 39100437 39180382 39350345 39510309 39840281
               39810216 39730181 39440154 39160138 38880137 38700140
               38460154 38100177 37930204 37780235 37660270 37660310
               37820363 38200410 38490434 38870450 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN