Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 548

   Mesoscale Discussion 0548
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0634 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025

   Areas affected...TX/OK Panhandles into the TX South Plains

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 167...

   Valid 242334Z - 250100Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 167 continues.

   SUMMARY...Supercells with very large hail and tornado potential may
   increase into this evening.

   DISCUSSION...A supercell northeast of Lubbock in Floyd County has
   recently intensified and turned right, with a confirmed tornado at
   around 2315 UTC. Other cells are gradually intensifying across the
   TX Panhandle and South Plains, within a weakly capped and strongly
   unstable (MLCAPE in excess of 2500 J/kg) environment. The 20Z AMA
   sounding was rather dry (with PW of 0.58 inches), but otherwise was
   quite favorable for organized storms with steep midlevel lapse rates
   and favorable deep-layer shear. Some increase in low-level moisture
   quality is expected due to backing surface winds, and multiple
   intense supercells may eventually evolve into early evening. 

   Any mature supercell within this environment will pose a threat of
   very large hail (possibly baseball-size or larger), given the
   favorable thermodynamic profile. A strengthening low-level jet will
   also enlarge low-level hodographs, resulting in an increasing
   conditional tornado threat with time, if any supercells can
   propagate east-southeastward into an increasingly moist environment.

   ..Dean.. 04/24/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...

   LAT...LON   33130204 34270185 34980180 35910191 36380195 36650165
               36710079 35060038 34460028 33700044 33170055 33090155
               33130204 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.75-4.25 IN