Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 545

   Mesoscale Discussion 0545
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0435 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025

   Areas affected...Southeast NE into southwest IA and extreme
   northwest MO

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 242135Z - 242330Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Strong to locally severe storms remain possible into the
   early evening.

   DISCUSSION...Storms have recently intensified near Omaha (with
   reports of hail up to golf ball size noted), with other storms
   ongoing into southeast NE. This convection has developed near a
   surface front and is likely being aided by a convectively enhanced
   midlevel shortwave trough currently moving across eastern NE.
   Heating into the 70s F near the front has allowed for MLCAPE to
   increase to near 1000 J/kg, while veering flow with height (as noted
   on the KOAX VWP) will continue to support some storm organization,
   including continued potential for a supercell or two. 

   Large hail and locally gusty winds are expected to be the most
   common hazards with the strongest storms into early evening.
   However, given the presence of a surface boundary and modestly
   enhanced low-level shear/SRH (with 0-1 km SRH near 100 m2/s2), a
   tornado also cannot be ruled out. With the threat potentially being
   rather limited in coverage and duration, the need for watch issuance
   is uncertain, but trends will be monitored for an uptick in coverage
   of organized storms.

   ..Dean/Guyer.. 04/24/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...GID...

   LAT...LON   41819421 41029407 40369564 40069745 40449759 41149639
               41499602 41839518 41819421 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN