Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 536

   Mesoscale Discussion 0536
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0933 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025

   Areas affected...TX Trans-Pecos into parts of the Edwards Plateau

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 162...

   Valid 240233Z - 240400Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 162
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Strong to locally severe storms may continue into late
   evening.

   DISCUSSION...A small storm cluster is ongoing this evening to the
   southeast of Fort Stockton. A gradual weakening trend has been noted
   over the last hour, potentially due to gradually increasing MLCINH
   with the onset of nocturnal cooling. However, favorable
   boundary-layer moisture beneath steep midlevel lapse rates is
   supporting moderate to locally strong buoyancy (as noted on the 00Z
   MAF and DRT soundings), with MLCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg.
   Meanwhile, deep-layer shear (aided by a subtropical jet) remains
   favorable for organized convection. Some potential remains for an
   uptick in storm intensity through late evening, aided by increasing
   low-level southeasterly flow (as noted in recent VWPs from KDFX).
   Any notable uptick could be accompanied by at least a
   low-probability threat for all severe hazards, though it remains
   uncertain if organized convection can become reestablished within an
   increasingly capped environment.

   ..Dean.. 04/24/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

   LAT...LON   31070248 31110138 31010048 30140044 29580077 29510107
               29520148 29620221 29770290 30180282 31070248 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN