Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 525

   Mesoscale Discussion 0525
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0216 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025

   Areas affected...South-central Texas

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 161...

   Valid 230716Z - 230915Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 161
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Large hail and potential for severe gusts will likely
   continue for a couple more hours. Hailstones greater than 2 inches
   in diameter will be possible. Weather watch issuance downstream of
   WW 161 may need to be considered.

   DISCUSSION...The latest hi-resolution radar data from Laughlin Air
   Force Base shows a line of strong thunderstorms, with an intense
   supercell located at the southern end 60 statute miles to the east
   of Del Rio. This line is located along the northwestern edge of a
   moist airmass, where surface dewpoints are in the mid to upper 60s.
   This line is near an axis of moderate instability. It is being
   supported by a shortwave trough that is moving through west-central
   Texas, evident on water vapor imagery. In addition, RAP analysis has
   an axis of steep mid-level lapse rates across southwest Texas, where
   700-500 mb lapse rates are estimated to be near 8 C/Km. This, in
   combination with about 40 knots of 0-6 km shear, evident on the
   WSR-88D VWP near Del Rio, will be favorable for supercells
   associated with large hail. Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in
   diameter will be possible. A wind-damage potential will also exist.
   Although the severe threat may continue for another hour or two, the
   storms are expected to gradually weaken as a cap builds across
   south-central Texas. Weather watch issuance downstream of WW 161
   remains uncertain.

   ..Broyles/Gleason.. 04/23/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...

   LAT...LON   29549889 29759951 29599987 29339998 29019997 28109942
               27889881 28229819 28719815 29139839 29549889 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN