Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 482

   Mesoscale Discussion 0482
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1216 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

   Areas affected...western and central Pennsylvania and adjacent
   southern New York

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 191716Z - 191915Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Some convective intensification is forecast this
   afternoon, accompanied by gusty winds and some potential for locally
   severe/damaging gusts.  Need for WW issuance appears unlikely at
   this time, but will we will monitor convective evolution.

   DISCUSSION...Meager instability is indicated across the central
   Appalachians area early this afternoon, though sparse cloud cover
   across western and central Pennsylvania and into adjacent southern
   New York will aid in gradual/modest destabilization over the next
   few hours.

   A band of thunderstorms is now crossing the Pennsylvania/Ohio
   border, moving rapidly east-northeastward at around 60 kt.  This
   storm motion is being supported by quasi-unidirectional
   west-southwesterly flow through the mid troposphere, increasing with
   height to around 50 kt at 2km and around 90kt at 4km.  The strength
   of the flow field and associated speed of storm motion suggests
   potential for locally strong wind gusts -- particularly with any
   appreciable destabilization.  However, with generally weak CAPE
   likely to remain somewhat of a limiting factor, WW issuance is
   currently not anticipated.

   ..Goss/Mosier.. 04/19/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...

   LAT...LON   40508087 41318043 42327825 42467656 41037663 40717767
               40408021 40508087 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN