Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 479

   Mesoscale Discussion 0479
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0221 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

   Areas affected...West-central and North Texas

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 146...

   Valid 190721Z - 190915Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 146
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A severe threat will likely continue across west-central
   Texas over the next couple of hours. Large hail and severe gusts
   will the primary threats, but a tornado will also be possible. The
   threat may gradually move east-northeastward into parts of central
   and north-central Texas over the next couple of hours.

   DISCUSSION...The latest high-resolution radar from San Angelo shows
   a broken line of organized thunderstorms, with a few of the storms
   being severe. The line is located within strong southwest flow
   aloft, and is to the east of a dryline. The RAP has a corridor of
   moderate instability across central Texas, where MUCAPE is estimated
   in the 2000 to 2500 J/kg range. The storms are currently located to
   the west of this corridor, but should gradually move toward the
   western edge of the stronger instability over the next few hours.
   This will help maintain convective development. RAP forecast
   soundings across west-central Texas have 0-6 km shear in the 40 to
   50 knot range, with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km. This will
   likely continue to support supercells with large hail. The more
   intense cores could produce hailstones greater than 2 inches in
   diameter. Isolated severe gusts, along with a tornado will also be
   possible.

   ..Broyles.. 04/19/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...

   LAT...LON   29950046 29880098 29950124 30180144 30470142 30900108
               32499965 32929929 33229887 33299855 33259829 33199809
               32969791 32529792 31939830 31089910 30319976 29950046 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN