Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 476

   Mesoscale Discussion 0476
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1126 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

   Areas affected...south-central Oklahoma and north-central Texas into
   eastern Oklahoma.

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 144...

   Valid 190426Z - 190600Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 144 continues.

   SUMMARY...A severe weather threat will continue into the overnight
   hours.

   DISCUSSION...Several supercells have developed late this evening
   across south-central and eastern Oklahoma and into north Texas with
   hail up to golf ball size. A strengthening low-level jet (sampled by
   the KFWS VWP) and continued destabilization via moistening around
   1km and cooling temperatures aloft should continue to support a
   supercell threat into the overnight hours. Large hail will be the
   primary threat, but some tornado threat will continue to exist with
   any storms along and south of the cold front where an STP of 1 to 2
   is present. 

   Additional severe convection west and north of the ongoing storms
   from Stephens to Cleveland county remains uncertain. The core of the
   low-level jet appears to be focused mostly east of that axis with
   minimal evidence on the KFDR VWP and only modest strengthening at
   1km from KDYX. Therefore, convection will likely be preferred from
   south-central Oklahoma and eastward, but sufficient elevated
   instability remains across northwest Texas and southwest Oklahoma
   that additional development is possible.

   ..Bentley.. 04/19/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...

   LAT...LON   33819820 34389901 34949907 35229859 36249660 36269650
               36519556 36359486 36069466 35459470 34589568 33829665
               33749728 33689783 33819820 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN