Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 470

   Mesoscale Discussion 0470
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0340 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

   Areas affected...north-central Texas and south-central and central
   Oklahoma

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 182040Z - 182315Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Severe threat to increase through the afternoon and
   evening. All hazards possible including large hail, damaging wind,
   and tornadoes.

   DISCUSSION...Surface analysis indicates a cold front located from
   northeastern through the Oklahoma City metro into southwestern
   Oklahoma to northwest Texas as of 20z. A dryline was located from
   southwestern Oklahoma into southwestern Texas. Ahead of the front, a
   broad area of mid to high level cloud cover has been in place across
   of southwestern/central Oklahoma, which has limited stronger daytime
   heating in this area. Breaks in the clouds have allowed temperatures
   to warm into the upper 70s to 80s across eastern Oklahoma. A
   gradient of MLCAPE around 500-1500 J/kg extends southwest to
   northeast across north-central Texas into eastern Oklahoma with
   strong deep layer shear around 55-65 kts.

   Recent runs of CAM guidance indicate potential for storm initiation
   across north-central Texas into southwestern Oklahoma at the
   intersection of the dryline and cold front. Forecast soundings
   indicate elongated largely straight hodographs and steep mid-level
   lapse rates, indicative of splitting supercells capable of large to
   very large (2-3"+) hail. This would support some potential for a
   storm or two to move northward to the cool side of the boundary,
   where the tornado threat should be minimal. Where the surface based
   warm sector resides, downstream  tornado threat may evolve into the
   evening as additional development occurs along the cold front and
   cells move eastward into more favorable instability and backed
   surface winds. A watch or weather watches will be needed in the
   coming hours to highlight these potential severe threats.

   ..Thornton/Smith.. 04/18/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...

   LAT...LON   33130009 33290049 33530054 34350034 34759991 35049899
               35159852 35479785 35769718 35809635 35539591 35059579
               34319634 33999698 33669769 33319857 33109958 33130009 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.75-4.25 IN