Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 436

   Mesoscale Discussion 0436
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0139 PM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025

   Areas affected...Northeast Florida...southeast Georgia and southern
   South Carolina

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 133...

   Valid 071839Z - 072015Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 133 continues.

   SUMMARY...A couple of tornadoes and occasional wind damage will be
   possible through the afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...A pre-frontal band of convection continues to shift
   eastward this afternoon on weak convective outflow, as the storms
   spread into an environment where surface temperatures have warmed
   into the low-mid 80s with 64-70 F dewpoints.  Wind profiles have
   become more unidirectional/southwesterly with time, and forcing for
   ascent is relatively modest well downstream from the positive-tilt
   midlevel trough over the lower MS Valley.  The overall severe threat
   appears to be transitioning more to occasional wind damage with
   short bowing segments, though a couple of tornadoes will still be
   possible.

   ..Thompson.. 04/07/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...TAE...

   LAT...LON   29748334 29788378 29998394 30668319 31378271 32068195
               33198077 32798045 30668216 29748334 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH