Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 401

   Mesoscale Discussion 0401
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0804 PM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025

   Areas affected...Northeast TX/Northwest LA into
   north-central/northeast AR

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 113...

   Valid 050104Z - 050230Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 113 continues.

   SUMMARY...Tornado potential will continue to focus across far
   northeast Texas, far northwest Louisiana northeastward into
   south-central to north-central/northeast Arkansas this evening.
   Tornado Watch 113 continues until 9pm CDT/02z, but a replacement
   (and east-northeastward expanding) Tornado Watch is expected.

   DISCUSSION...Scattered intense storms including
   embedded/semi-discrete supercells will continue to focus this
   evening especially within a southwest/northeast-oriented corridor
   across southwest/central into north-central/northeast Arkansas. The
   complex/muddled convective mode will continue to be a factor, but
   the moist environment and strengthening low-level shear will
   continue to support tornado potential, possibly including a strong
   tornado, aside from damaging winds/some hail.

   The 00z observed sounding from Little Rock features a moisture-rich
   boundary layer with a 70F surface dewpoint and 13.8 g/kg mean mixing
   ratio. 0-1km SRH was around 330 m2/s2, and increase over the past
   couple hours per prior WSR-88D VWP data, with a further increase
   expected over the next hour or two especially from southwest/central
   Arkansas northeastward into northeast Arkansas/far southeast
   Missouri.

   ..Guyer.. 04/05/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...SHV...

   LAT...LON   33449270 32749433 34479353 36359162 35618966 33449270 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...140-170 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN